First Home Buyers Sydney: Can You Still Afford a Home in 2026?
Sydney’s median house price sits around $1.73 million — so what does that actually mean for a first-home buyer in 2026? I spoke with SBS about it. This is the deeper, on-the-ground version of that conversation, drawing on what I’m seeing across Glenmore Park, Penrith and Jordan Springs.
I recently spoke with SBS about whether young Australians can still afford a first home in Sydney — the compromises buyers are making, where the opportunities are, and what the next 12 months might hold. An interview can only cover so much, so this article goes deeper, drawing on what I’m actually seeing on the ground in Glenmore Park, Penrith and Jordan Springs.
The conversation
What I discussed with SBS about first-home buyers in Sydney
This week, I spoke with SBS about one of the biggest questions facing young Australians today: can they still afford to buy their first home in Sydney? We covered affordability, the compromises buyers may need to make, different locations and property types, where the opportunities sit, and what to expect from the market over the next 12 months.
Listen — SBS interview, this week
Can young Australians still afford a first home in Sydney?
The interview is the starting point for this article. Here, I want to take the conversation further and explain what these affordability pressures actually mean for buyers looking at Sydney — particularly Western Sydney.
The short answer
So, can young Australians still afford a first home in Sydney?
Yes — but affordability rarely means “cheap house”
It’s a combination of variables, not a single number
For many buyers, affordability means finding the right combination of location, property type, size, borrowing capacity, deposit, ongoing repayments, lifestyle and long-term plans. A buyer who cannot afford a four-bedroom house in their preferred suburb may still enter the market by changing one or two of those variables.
The important thing is not to confuse buying your first home with buying your dream home. They don’t have to be the same property.
Behind the median
Why is buying a first home in Sydney so difficult?
Sydney remains one of Australia’s most expensive housing markets. But the median price is only part of the story — Sydney is not one single property market, and conditions vary considerably between suburbs, property types and price brackets.
The median hides very different markets — and it’s genuinely shifting
Domain’s June 2026 report recorded Sydney’s median house price falling 3.3% ($59,884) over the quarter to $1,733,891 — down from the previous quarter’s record high and back to June 2025 levels. It’s the first quarterly decline in three and a half years, and the largest fall of any capital city. Annual growth has slowed sharply too, to just 1.1% ($18,597), the weakest pace in three years, as borrowing capacity and affordability constraints weigh on demand.
Units told a similar but smaller story: down 1.5% ($12,778) over the quarter to $849,068, the first quarterly unit decline in two years, with annual growth easing to 2.5% ($20,660). Units continue to outperform houses, narrowing the house-unit price gap to its smallest in a year and a half.
Selling conditions have weakened materially alongside the price falls — longer selling times and heavier discounting are shifting real power to buyers. A buyer looking at a $1.7 million house in an expensive suburb faces a very different challenge from a buyer considering a $650,000–$800,000 apartment further west. First-home buyers should look beyond the Sydney-wide median and ask what they can realistically afford — and where that budget buys a property they’d be happy to own.
Not just “cheap Sydney”
Why Western Sydney matters for first-home buyers
Western Sydney is becoming an increasingly important part of the first-home-buyer conversation — but I wouldn’t describe it simply as “cheap Sydney.” That’s too simplistic. It contains many different property markets, from established family suburbs to newer communities, apartment markets and major employment and infrastructure areas.
A wider range of choice
For a first-home buyer, the attraction is the wider range of property choices at different price points — from established suburbs like Glenmore Park to fast-growing newer estates like Jordan Springs.
Look past the price tag
Transport, employment access, schools, amenities, land size, owner-occupier demand, future infrastructure and resale appeal all matter. The cheapest property isn’t automatically the best first home — the right one is what makes sense financially, practically and for your long-term plans.
Where to start
The three biggest compromises first-home buyers may need to make
If you’re struggling to afford the type of property you originally wanted, these are the three areas I’d look at first.
1. Location
You may not be able to buy in your first-choice suburb. Moving further west can give buyers access to different property types and larger homes for the same budget — balanced against commuting time, transport and lifestyle.
2. Property type
A detached house isn’t the only way in. An apartment, townhouse or villa can be a more realistic entry point — sometimes a difference of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
3. Property size. Your first home doesn’t need to be your forever home. Fewer bedrooms, a smaller backyard, an older kitchen or a property that needs some cosmetic work isn’t a failure — for many buyers, the first property is simply the starting point.
A closer look — August 2025 to July 2026
Glenmore Park, Penrith and Jordan Springs: what are buyers looking for?
Working across these three Western Sydney suburbs, I see buyers balancing affordability, lifestyle and future resale appeal — and those priorities don’t always point to the same suburb. Here’s how each is actually performing right now, houses and units side by side.
Glenmore Park
NSW 2745Penrith
NSW 2750Jordan Springs
NSW 2747| Suburb | 2 bed house | 3 bed house | 4 bed house | 1 bed unit | 2 bed unit | 3 bed unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenmore Park | Unavailable | $1,050,000 | $1,320,100 | $420,000 | $732,500 | $862,250 |
| Penrith | $1,025,000 | $1,055,000 | $1,175,000 | $490,000 | $620,000 | $795,000 |
| Jordan Springs | Unavailable | $1,021,000 | $1,130,000 | Unavailable | $542,500 | $765,000 |
For buyers who value an established community, Glenmore Park is attractive but stock is genuinely tight — only 69 houses and 7 units came onto the market last month against thousands of buyers watching. Penrith is the standout for entry-level buyers: its unit market alone saw 459 sales in a year, and house growth of 14.6% shows it isn’t just “the affordable option” anymore. Jordan Springs is still a growth story for houses (+12.4%), though its smaller unit market has actually pulled back 8.2% over the past year — worth factoring in if resale timing matters to you.
The big question
Should first-home buyers wait for prices to fall further?
My advice is not to try to predict the exact bottom of the market. Nobody knows exactly where that will be. Instead, ask whether you are ready.
You’re financially ready
- Your finance is secure and your deposit is genuine
- You’ve got a reasonable cash buffer
- Repayments are manageable
- You’ve found a property you’d own for several years, fairly priced against comparable sales
Your position isn’t ready yet
- Your borrowing position isn’t secure
- Your deposit isn’t ready
- You don’t have savings for unexpected costs
- You haven’t found a property that actually suits your needs
“A falling market doesn’t automatically make every property a bargain. And a rising market doesn’t automatically make every property a good investment. The individual property still matters.”Omid Jolan
Due diligence
What should you check before buying your first home?
Before making an offer, I’d encourage first-home buyers to look beyond the advertised price.
Borrowing capacity
Understand exactly what you can comfortably borrow — not simply the maximum a lender says you can borrow.
Total upfront costs
Deposit, transfer duty where applicable, conveyancing, inspections, moving costs and other purchase expenses.
Ongoing costs
Mortgage repayments, council rates, insurance, maintenance and strata costs where applicable.
Property condition
A cheaper property can become expensive if it has significant structural or maintenance issues.
Comparable sales
Don’t rely solely on the asking price — look at what similar properties have actually sold for.
Future resale appeal
Even a first home eventually gets sold. Would another buyer want this property in five or ten years?
Government support
What first-home buyer assistance is available in NSW?
Eligible first-home buyers may have access to the NSW First Home Buyers Assistance Scheme, which can provide transfer-duty exemptions or concessions depending on the purchase price and eligibility requirements. Government schemes and thresholds can change — before relying on any assistance, check the current requirements directly with Revenue NSW or your conveyancer.
Looking ahead
What could happen to the Sydney market over the next 12 months?
Nobody can confidently say exactly where Sydney prices will be in 12 months. Instead, watch the factors that actually influence affordability and demand: interest rates, borrowing capacity, employment, consumer confidence, housing supply, listing volumes, population growth, infrastructure and buyer competition.
Sydney’s market has already become more negotiable. For first-home buyers, that doesn’t necessarily mean waiting is the answer — it means being prepared matters. If conditions create an opportunity, the buyer with secure finance, a genuine deposit and a clear budget is in a much stronger position to act.
Clear answers, no clutter
Frequently asked questions
The key questions first-home buyers are asking about Sydney’s market right now.
Can young Australians still afford a first home in Sydney?
Yes — but usually not the way previous generations did it. Most first-home buyers now get there by adjusting one or two of location, property type or size, rather than by finding a cheap version of the property they originally wanted.
Is Sydney’s property market actually cooling, or is this just a seasonal dip?
It’s more than seasonal. Domain recorded the first quarterly house price fall in three and a half years, auction clearance rates at their lowest since April 2020, and a record 29.3% of auctions withdrawn — all pointing to a genuine cyclical shift, not a one-off blip.
Is Western Sydney more affordable for first-home buyers?
Generally yes, though not uniformly. Unit prices across Glenmore Park, Penrith and Jordan Springs currently range from about $615,000 to $807,500 — well under the Sydney-wide unit median of $849,068 — while house prices in these suburbs sit roughly $500,000–$630,000 below the Sydney house median.
Which of the three suburbs — Glenmore Park, Penrith or Jordan Springs — has the most stock to choose from?
Penrith, by a wide margin. It had 90 units and 36 houses listed in the past month, compared to single digits for units in both Glenmore Park and Jordan Springs. More stock generally means more room to negotiate and less competition per listing.
Is Jordan Springs a good option for first-home buyers?
It can suit buyers wanting a newer home with strong house price growth (+12.4% over the past year). Worth noting its unit segment is smaller and has pulled back 8.2% over the same period, so it currently suits house buyers more than unit buyers.
Should I buy now or wait for prices to fall further?
That depends on your readiness, not the market’s timing. If your finance, deposit and cash buffer are solid and you’ve found a fairly priced property you’d own for years, waiting purely to guess the bottom rarely pays off — nobody can pinpoint it in advance.
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Disclaimer: Omid Jolan is a licensed real estate agent based in Glenmore Park. This article provides general information only and is not financial, legal or personal investment advice. Property market data is sourced from Domain, Cotality and other providers; figures can vary and should be independently verified before making any property decision. Buyers should consider obtaining independent financial, legal and property advice before purchasing.